ACUS02 KWNS 240552
SWODY2
SPC AC 240550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday.

Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with
high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will
be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low
60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here,
some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak
lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some
convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may
support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal
convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the
thunderstorm threat likely wanes.

..Bentley.. 10/24/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 280551
SWODY2
SPC AC 280550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are
expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi
Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern
Plains.

...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the
eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface,
a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains
as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and
convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective
initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley
within the mid to late evening, where instability should be
sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is
expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with
additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern
Plains.

The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable
area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri
Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings
near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping
inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective
shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km.
This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail.
Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be
elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the
front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell
that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce
isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a
marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening
low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and
lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an
outlook upgrade at this time.

..Broyles.. 10/28/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 290555
SWODY2
SPC AC 290553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are
expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains
extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and
Ozarks.

...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to
Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks...
An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on
Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over
the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is
forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday
afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward
into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri
Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be
in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over
much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected
to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending
northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated
severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during
the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to
take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster
or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas
extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow,
large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich
low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable
for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern
Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area,
NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z,
with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This
environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and
severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible
with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in
size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells
and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the
convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a
wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most
favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms
embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line.
Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily
discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe
wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop
southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening.
The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A
severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and
perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through
the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks.

..Broyles.. 10/29/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300556
SWODY2
SPC AC 300554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts, will be
possible Thursday afternoon along a narrow corridor from the Sabine
River Valley north-northeastward into far southern Lower Michigan.

...Sabine River Valley/Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley/Lower Ohio Valley/Southern Great Lakes...
A negatively-tilted upper-level trough, and an associated 70 to 80
knot mid-level speed max, will move northeastward into the Great
Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward into the Ark-La-Tex and mid Mississippi Valley. Ahead of
the front, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to weak destabilization in most areas by midday. Convection is expected to
initiate along and ahead the front during the late morning as
surface temperatures warm. Thunderstorms should gradually increase
in coverage in the afternoon, moving eastward across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley.

Model solutions appear to present two scenarios. The first solution,
which is depicted by the NAM, initiates convection near the front
around midday from east-central Texas north-northeastward into the
mid Mississippi Valley, with a second north-to-south band of storms
developing much further east in the lower Mississippi Valley. The
second solution, which is depicted by the ECMWF, focuses most of the
convection further east near the center of the low-level moisture
corridor in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. Strong outflow from
the previous night's convection is forecast to surge southeastward
across much of central and east Texas Thursday morning, which could
favor the second scenario, with an effective frontal boundary much
further east.

The severe threat should be concentrated along and near the axis of
the strongest low-level flow, which is forecast to be in the lower
to mid Mississippi Valley, and lower Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings
near the moist axis in the afternoon have MLCAPE peaking from around
500 J/kg in the lower Ohio Valley to 1500 J/kg in the lower
Mississippi Valley. Moderate deep-layer shear is forecast along much
of the moist axis, where low-level lapse rates could peak near 7
C/km in areas that heat up the most. This environment will likely
support an isolated wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with
the stronger and more organized multicells. A marginal tornado
threat may also develop, mainly from western Tennessee
south-southwestward into northern Louisiana, where the combination
of instability and shear is forecast to be maximized, in conjunction
with steep low-level lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 301728
SWODY2
SPC AC 301726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally
severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon,
from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle
Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward
toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the
period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an
associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the
period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas
Coast.

...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana...
Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an
advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the
southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With
the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly
northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing
ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly
the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the
Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more
favorable kinematics.

Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to
cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to
produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels.
Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours,
after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe
potential is expected.

..Goss.. 10/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 010546
SWODY2
SPC AC 010545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Saturday into Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across a part of the
Permian Basin and South Plains of west Texas during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Southern Great Plains...
Widespread convection will be ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the
southern High Plains, centered on southeast NM to the Panhandles,
within a robust low-level warm theta-e advection regime. A
semi-organized linear cluster may be present along the southern edge
of the convective swath, and could be maintained through the diurnal
heating cycle. Low to mid-level lapse rates downstream will be weak,
suggesting localized strong gusts early.

A mesoscale corridor of sustained supercell potential is evident
over parts of the Permian Basin and South Plains from mid-afternoon
to early evening. Regenerative convective development is expected in
the wake of morning activity, along the effective outflow-reinforced
baroclinic zone arcing to the west-southwest. Best potential for
boundary-layer heating will be across the TX Trans-Pecos. Downstream
of a full-latitude trough from the Canadian Rockies to the northern
Gulf of CA, a strengthening upper jet over northern Mexico should
overspread the Trans-Pecos late day. This will yield favorable mid
to upper-level hodograph elongation with southwesterly speed shear
immediately downstream. A couple longer-lived supercells may develop
and move along the mesoscale outflow boundary, with a threat for
golf- to tennis-ball-sized hail, despite moderate mid-level lapse
rates. With an early evening increase in the low-level jet, a couple
tornadoes may develop as well.

Mid-level lapse rates will be weaker with a more moist-adiabatic
profile extending northeastward into OK. Still, with the evening
increase in the low-level jet, potential will exist for low-level
rotation with embedded convection along the baroclinic zone. While
convective mode will be messy, and uncertainty exists with the
spatial placement of the corridor in the wake of daytime convection,
the persistent influx of mid 60s surface dew points suggests a
low-probability tornado/wind threat may extend into Saturday night.

..Grams.. 11/01/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN
BASIN VICINITY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are expected Saturday and Saturday night
across parts of the southern Great Plains. The most likely corridor
for a couple tornadoes and large hail is across parts of the Permian
Basin and South Plains of Texas during the late afternoon and early
evening.

...Synopsis...
Digging/intensification -- and gradual/steady progression -- of the
western U.S. upper trough is expected Saturday. As this system
shifts from the West Coast states across the Great Basin and into
the Desert Southwest, substantial downstream mid-level height falls
will occur across the central and southern Plains.

At the surface, a remnant baroclinic zone -- extending from Texas
eastward across the Southeast -- will mark the northern extent of
the moist Gulf low-level airmass. This boundary -- in response to
persistent southeasterly low-level flow -- should tend to retreat
northwestward across Texas/Oklahoma, though likely to become impeded
by convective outflow. The result will likely become a convectively
reinforced boundary extending from the Permian Basin vicinity east-northeastward into Oklahoma, which will focus persistent,
regenerative convection and some attendant severe risk through the
period.

...Transpecos region and southeastern New Mexico northeastward into
central and northern Oklahoma...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of
the period from southeastern New Mexico northeastward into southern
Kansas, with potentially some local/low-end severe risk on the
southern fringe of this convection. South of the convection, some heating/destabilization is expected -- particularly across the Transpecos/Permian Basin region. Here, an afternoon increase in
convection -- likely in the form of supercells -- is expected to
occur. Here, large hail will be possible, along with potential for
locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes.

Into the evening, convection should increase in coverage -- likely
evolving into multiple linear bands, as a low-level jet increases.
Though instability should remain lesser with northeastward extent
into Oklahoma, owing to relatively weak lapse rates, multiple rounds
of banded convection should be accompanied by risk for locally
strong wind gusts, along with marginal hail and potentially a
tornado or two. This potential should persist well into the
overnight hours.

..Goss.. 11/01/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020553
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO
THE TX BIG COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday
Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes
parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes,
damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto
the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest
Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of
the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will
also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of
the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into
the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous
shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the
central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional
cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into
western north TX.

...Central to southern Great Plains...
A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple
rounds of severe potential anticipated.

A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks
southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic
zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in
suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late
morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage
midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone
that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently
indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with
embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies.
Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be
favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still,
this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH
as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some
embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection
should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent
increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these
multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible.

A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may
develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak
mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient
will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH
will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat.

Convective development along the dryline near the central High
Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects
of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined
and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will
be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper
hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or
two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise,
some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE
and north KS.

..Grams.. 11/02/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040628
SWODY2
SPC AC 040627

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SABINE TO
LOWER MS VALLEYS AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur on
Tuesday across a portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys,
and central to southern Wisconsin.

...Gulf Coast States...
Lingering convection on Tuesday morning should be confined along a
slowing cold front in the TX Gulf Coast to the Sabine Valley. Some
of this activity might produce small hail along the TX Gulf Coast
portion where the surface front will likely shift off the coast by
mid-morning. Farther northeast, adequate low-level shear should be
maintained through at least midday, yielding potential for rotating
convection. But mid-level lapse rates will remain weak, and
large-scale ascent will be pulling away from the region through the
day. Some convective redevelopment is possible along the
front/residual outflows midday into the afternoon. Locally strong
gusts and a brief tornado will be possible during the first half of
the period. Low to deep-layer shear magnitudes are expected to
diminish from south to north during the evening.

Across the FL Keys, based on latest NHC track/intensity forecast for
PTC 18 along with 00Z guidance, tornado potential is expected to
remain negligible through 12Z Wednesday.

...Central/southern WI...
A conditional, low-probability setup from low-topped convection is
evident from about midday to mid-afternoon Tuesday. A deep surface
cyclone around 995 mb should track northeast from IA to central WI.
Some models suggest a mesoscale-focused corridor of modest diabatic
surface heating may overlap the northwest periphery of mid to upper
50s dew points. This could yield scant surface-based buoyancy
immediately ahead of the cyclone. However, this heating may occur
once low-level winds begin to veer, yielding low confidence in
whether enlarged hodographs will overlap the meager instability.
Still, with most 00Z CAMs indicating discrete convection,
low-probability tornado/wind highlights appear warranted.

..Grams.. 11/04/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 050559
SWODY2
SPC AC 050558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER FL KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Tropical Cyclone Rafael, from late morning into the evening
Wednesday across the Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

...Keys/southern Peninsula of FL...
Latest NHC forecast has Tropical Storm Rafael intensifying to a
hurricane by 12Z Wednesday and moving across western Cuba into the
eastern Gulf through early Thursday. Most 00Z guidance has trended
farther northeast with the attendant belt of stronger low-level flow
relative to 24 hours ago. As such, near-easterly surface winds
veering to south-southeasterlies will yield hodograph enlargement.
This increase should be favorably timed to the diurnal heating
cycle, with peak low-level SRH anticipated during afternoon. Amid
increasingly rich mean-mixing ratios of 17-18 g/kg, deeper outer
band cells will likely rotate across the FL Straits and progress
west-northwest across the Keys and adjacent peninsula. At least a
few waterspouts appear probable and these may move across land as
tornadoes. Overall threat should diminish Wednesday night as
low-level SRH gradually subsides, and deep convection becomes
confined to the Gulf.

..Grams.. 11/05/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 060651
SWODY2
SPC AC 060650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF WEST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, beginning in the late
afternoon Thursday across parts of west and central Texas. The most
likely corridor for large hail will be over a part of west Texas on
Thursday evening/night.

...West/central TX...
A mid/upper low will drift east across AZ/NM through much of the day
Thursday. By Thursday night, it should accelerate as an attendant
mid-level jet becomes confined to the southeast quadrant of the
cyclone. While a surface ridge will initially nose down the southern
High Plains from an anticyclone over the central High Plains, this
will eventually lose amplitude. Weak cyclogenesis should occur late
in the period along an inverted surface trough in parts of west TX.

A persistent increase in low-level moisture from the western Gulf
will return northwestward through the period. While some elevated
convection will be possible during the day, initially from central
to northwest TX, the bulk of convective development should occur in
the evening/night as the low-level jet broadly intensifies. This
will be coincident with a gradual increase in mid-level height falls overspreading west TX Thursday night.

A mesoscale corridor of relatively greater supercell potential
appears evident during the evening/night. This appears centered on
parts of the Lower Pecos Valley/Permian Basin and the western
Edwards Plateau regions near the surface trough. While low-level
lapse rates should be weak, strong southwesterly speed shear in the
mid to upper levels will be favorable for a primary threat of large
hail with a mix of cells/small clusters. An abrupt cutoff to
surface-based severe convection is expected to the north/west of
this corridor, especially as weak cyclogenesis occurs. While
consistency has increased in guidance relative to 24 hours, where
exactly this demarcation is will likely be modulated by how
widespread elevated convection becomes during the evening to night.

..Grams.. 11/06/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 070647
SWODY2
SPC AC 070645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TO
NORTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening
Friday across parts of central to north Texas.

...TX...
A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM
into the central High Plains. A weak surface low will similarly
track northward from northwest TX into western KS before occluding.
A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front should push east into
central TX by late afternoon Friday. A surface ridge initially
across the Mid-South will limit more substantial moisture return
north of the Red River.

Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across
parts of west TX/OK. An isolated/marginal severe threat could
accompany the storms during the morning across the Edwards Plateau
vicinity, where more favorable mid-level instability will be.
Surface-based destabilization will struggle across northern parts of
TX and this should support increasingly pronounced differential
heating from south to north across central TX. Guidance consensus
suggests a separate arc of afternoon thunderstorm development should
occur within a warm conveyor ahead of the surface front. This could
foster a mesoscale uptick in severe potential approaching the I-35
corridor late day. While low-level SRH should be modest where MLCAPE
is more than meager, rich western Gulf moisture will support
potential for a few supercells. Hail/wind may be the primary
threats, but a couple tornadoes are also possible. Guidance does
differ with how quickly the outflow-reinforced cold front pushes
east during the day, yielding moderate uncertainty of where a
greater severe threat may be.

Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak
surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should progressively wane during
the evening from south to north. This suggests the severe threat
will likely diminish after sunset.

..Grams.. 11/07/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 090554
SWODY2
SPC AC 090552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and its attendant surface cyclone over the Upper
Midwest at 12Z Sunday will progress east, reaching the Ottawa Valley
by early morning Monday. A surface front, trailing southwestward,
will sink slowly southeast over the OH Valley to Mid-South and
remain quasi-stationary over the Ark-La-Tex. A confined low-level
warm/moist conveyor will support a threat for elevated thunderstorms
from the Mid-South to the OH Valley. Surface-based storms will be
possible southwestward to the western/central Gulf Coast. Poor lapse
rates, weak buoyancy, and diminishing vertical shear will preclude
severe storms.

Across south FL, as moisture increases within a southeasterly
low-level flow regime, isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday night.

..Grams.. 11/09/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 100630
SWODY2
SPC AC 100628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected Monday or Monday night.

...Southeast...
Isolated, elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of the
Carolina Coastal Plain. Weak tropospheric lapse rates will be a
limiting factor to updraft intensity. Low-level flow will become
increasingly veered during the day, yielding a predominately zonal
flow regime. This should result in thunder potential shifting
entirely offshore around midday.

A few thunderstorms embedded within a corridor of slow-moving
convection will be possible along a portion of the central Gulf
Coast, before activity gradually wanes during the day. Isolated
thunderstorms may also develop across a portion of south FL during
the afternoon.

...Western WA/OR and northern CA...
A leading shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front should
move onshore Monday morning. In its wake, low to mid-level lapse
rates will steepen amid meager buoyancy. An upstream shortwave
impulse and persistent onshore low-level winds should support
scattered, low-topped convection. Some of this will be sufficiently
deep to foster sporadic lightning through Monday evening.
Thunderstorm probabilities will diminish Monday night as the plume
of steep mid-level lapse rates shifts farther inland.

..Grams.. 11/10/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 110644
SWODY2
SPC AC 110642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TX TO FAR SOUTHWEST KS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail will be possible in parts of the southern
High/Rolling Plains on Tuesday evening.

...Southern High/Rolling Plains...
Zonal upper flow over the southern states will buckle as a
full-latitude trough progresses eastward across the West. This
trough should reach the Great Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Primary
embedded shortwave impulse is expected to eject from the Four
Corners into the central Great Plains. Low-level moisture quality
downstream will be lacking, owing in part to the preceding presence
of post-TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will
still emanate northward from northeast Mexico. Low to mid 50s
surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by 00Z, with upper
50s farther south in west TX. This should yield a narrow ribbon of
weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening
surface trough.

Confidence remains low in whether surface-based storms will become
sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry
mid-levels within the southwesterly flow regime. More probable
convective development is expected during the evening, as
large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and
strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection occurs. Favorable
speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support potential for a
few elevated supercells. Mid-level lapse rates appear modest, and
this may hold hail magnitudes to marginally severe. The severe
threat will probably be confined to the early/western portion of sustained-storm activity, but small hail may persist
east-northeastward in parts of OK/KS Tuesday night.

..Grams.. 11/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120658
SWODY2
SPC AC 120657

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST...FOR COASTAL WA/OR/NORTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal tornado/wind threat is apparent on Wednesday afternoon
into Wednesday night across a part of the central Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms with strong to locally severe gusts are also possible
near the immediate coasts of Washington, Oregon, and northern
California.

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from
the Great Plains toward the Midwest and OH/TN Valleys on Wednesday.
In conjunction with this shortwave trough, a weak surface low will
move from the east-central Plains toward the Great Lakes region, as
a trailing cold front moves through parts of the middle/lower MS
Valley. Farther west, a deep mid/upper-level trough will progress
farther inland across the western CONUS, as an embedded shortwave
moves across northern CA into the interior Northwest.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast region...
Rich low-level moisture (with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints) is
forecast to gradually spread northward across the lower MS Valley
region from later in the D1/Tuesday period into D2/Wednesday. Weak
lapse rates will tend to limit instability, while stronger
mid/upper-level flow will generally remain north of the richer
moisture. However, deep-layer shear will likely become at least
marginally supportive of organized storms, while some enhancement to
low-level flow/shear is forecast as the shortwave trough to the
north glances the region. This evolution could support a few
marginal supercells and/or stronger clusters during the afternoon
and evening, with a threat of locally damaging winds and possibly a
tornado or two.

Elevated storms will also be possible through the day/evening to the
north of the richer surface moisture. While effective shear will be
sufficient for a few strong elevated storms, the severe potential
with northward extent will tend to be limited by weak midlevel lapse
rates and generally marginal MUCAPE.

...WA/OR/northern CA coasts...
Cooling temperatures aloft will support weak destabilization in the
vicinity of the WA/OR/northern CA coasts through the day on
Wednesday. While convection will be rather low-topped, instability
may become sufficient (with SBCAPE potentially in the 200-500 J/kg
range) for occasional thunderstorms. The strongest low-level flow
will precede the primary destabilization, but persistent and rather
strong deep-layer southwesterly flow could support modestly
organized line segments and/or weakly rotating cells, with a threat
of isolated severe convective gusts and perhaps some small hail. A
brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, though the favored location
(if any) of any longer-lived rotating cells remains uncertain at
this time.

..Dean.. 11/12/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 130701
SWODY2
SPC AC 130659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms will be possible near the central and northeast
Gulf Coasts early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the
Carolinas Thursday evening and night. Organized severe potential
appears relatively low at this time.

...Synopsis...
A negatively tilted mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Midwest/Ohio Valley is forecast to dig southeastward on Thursday and
evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low as it approaches the Mid
Atlantic. As this occurs, a surface low is forecast to deepen
Thursday night along a frontal boundary near the Coastal Carolinas.
Farther west, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move
eastward and amplify as it approaches the Pacific Coast and
eventually moves inland.

...Central/northeast Gulf Coast vicinity...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across parts
of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle, aided by the mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving across the Ohio Valley and attendant
low-level jet. Low-level flow will tend to veer and weaken through
the day, which will tend to result in less convective organization
with time. However, if organized convection from late on
D1/Wednesday can persist into Thursday morning, then rich low-level
moisture and sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear could support
a threat of isolated damaging winds and possibly a tornado.
Probabilities may eventually be needed if it appears that some
severe threat may continue from overnight Wednesday into the first
part of Thursday.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Uncertainty remains regarding the northward extent of appreciable
surface moistening/destabilization near the Coastal Carolinas, as
the surface low deepens and tracks east-northeastward into Friday
morning. However, there appears to be some potential for the
effective warm front to overlap parts of coastal NC and the Outer
Banks during the evening, as stronger deep-layer flow and ascent
overspread the region. Increasingly widespread precipitation will
tend to limit destabilization, but favorable wind profiles will
support organized convective potential where modest buoyancy can
develop. Probabilities may eventually be needed near the coast and
Outer Banks, if confidence increases regarding the potential for
isolated damaging winds and/or a tornado later in the forecast
period.

..Dean.. 11/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 140640
SWODY2
SPC AC 140638

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A deepening cyclone initially centered near the NC Outer Banks on
Friday morning is forecast to quickly move offshore through the day,
as a trailing cold front moves across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf
of Mexico. A deep mid/upper-level trough will move slowly eastward
across the western CONUS, with some further amplification of this
trough expected through the forecast period.

Thunderstorm potential will be low across most of the CONUS due to
generally limited moisture/instability. Some thunderstorm potential
may linger very early in the period across coastal NC, before the
low moves farther offshore with time. Weak convection with sporadic
lightning flashes will be possible across parts of central/northern
CA into the Great Basin in association with the western trough.
Confidence in sufficient coverage remains too low to include any
general thunderstorm areas across the West at this time.

..Dean.. 11/14/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 251657
SWODY2
SPC AC 251656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous
states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out near the ArkLaTex.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large
upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper
trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High
pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and
over much of the intermountain west during the day.

In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to
extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F
dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will
be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped
air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse
rates poor.

Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific
Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with
low-topped convection primarily offshore.

..Jewell.. 10/25/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 260551
SWODY2
SPC AC 260549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the
coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday,
as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface
high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern
half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong
large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for
isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and
Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No
severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the
continental United States.

..Broyles.. 10/26/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 271643
SWODY2
SPC AC 271641

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of
the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across
the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected.

...Synopsis...
A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central
CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying
low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow
(Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic
forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered
thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific
Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level
warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday
evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level
jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster
the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development.
Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of
the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the
Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough
offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 230558
SWODY2
SPC AC 230557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
MUCH OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas
and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of
Iowa.

...Synopsis...
On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central
and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from
the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in
place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold
front, providing generally stable conditions.

Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the
mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon
and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level
moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix
out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected.
A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but
will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability.
Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to
a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to
cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient
forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated
convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours.
Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may
support a few supercells capable of large hail.

..Bentley.. 10/23/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 210546
SWODY2
SPC AC 210544

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will be absorbed into the broader westerlies on
Tuesday as it traverses from the Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes.
Some remnant convection is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in
the vicinity of this trough across Missouri, but this convection
should weaken by mid-day as it moves into drier air.

Ridging will start to build in the western CONUS with an extended
moderately strong jet-stream from the Oregon/California border to
the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will traverse
the northern Plains during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms
are expected along this frontal boundary, as temperatures cool aloft
and forcing increases ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough
approaching the area from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces.
Instability will be limited, but may be sufficient for some
lightning flashes.

..Bentley.. 10/21/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 220600
SWODY2
SPC AC 220559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson
Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday
morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress
throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as
the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany
this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current
expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast
from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across
the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints),
limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along
and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in
isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level
westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented
gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective
line.

Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection
along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of
any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust
convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible
with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance
will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities
will be needed in later outlooks.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front
will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during
the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability
profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat.

..Bentley.. 10/22/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180541
SWODY2
SPC AC 180540

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High
Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary
threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur
with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will
become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary
just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds
associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared
to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough
becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface,
modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will
continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is
maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous
ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection
should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period,
especially in New Mexico.

...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas...
Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley
will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High
Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will
promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to
eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives
some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will
occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater
heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there
appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis
Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be
favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain
steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some
storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts
could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will
increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level
stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a
tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early
evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper
low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe
probabilities was made.

Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis
Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level
clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms
will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into
marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail
would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the
Trans-Pecos region.

..Wendt.. 10/18/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150435
SWODY2
SPC AC 150434

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific
Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday
afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is
possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida
Keys.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across
the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this
period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to
continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this
regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress
inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies
by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into
the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland
to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become
absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward.

Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the
Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent
over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale
troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic
Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just
before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit
less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the
base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute
to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid
Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the
eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave
development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well
east of the Mid Atlantic coast.

As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing
to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of
initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies
is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri
Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the
ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence
across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening
is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of
the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico.

...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities...
While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance
away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is
forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken
across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas
coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture
content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and
widely scattered thunderstorm activity.

...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies...
Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for
ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/15/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 160442
SWODY2
SPC AC 160440

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that mid/upper flow will become increasingly split
across western North America during this period, as initially
consolidated large-scale troughing progresses inland. One notable
embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across
and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar
trailing perturbation digs inland of the northern Pacific coast,
through areas near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday.

To the east of the Rockies, the primary and secondary surface
cyclogenesis likely will accompany the lead impulse into the higher
latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge
east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario
by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great
Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, the
Black Hills vicinity, and the higher terrain of southern
Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin.

Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of
confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the
western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is
forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians
vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable
stabilizing influence as far south as the northern Gulf of Mexico
and Gulf coast vicinity.

...Pacific coast into Great Plains...
It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft, and the lack of
sufficient low-level moisture return, will preclude an appreciable
risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep
surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into
Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and
cooling aloft, spreading across the Pacific Northwest into the Great
Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night, probably will
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas
of weak thunderstorm activity.

..Kerr.. 10/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170449
SWODY2
SPC AC 170447

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of
eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento
Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail,
locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse
splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue
digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during
this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch
into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by
late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger
westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest coast.

To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper
Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained,
with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low
only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic
coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface
ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing
influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast
region.

Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest
moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the
southern Rockies.

...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains...
It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening
surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the
central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak
boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential
late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico
border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization
may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms.

In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of
the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday
evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern
slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level
lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for
ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing
up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying
thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles
probably will become supportive of supercell structures with
potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong
surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs
around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of
a tornado around 06Z Friday night.

..Kerr.. 10/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 130431
SWODY2
SPC AC 130430

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs for this
period, with the mid-latitude westerlies forecast to remain modestly
amplified but generally progressive Monday through Monday night.
Within this regime, it appears that initially more prominent ridging
over the Canadian Prairies will begin to break down. As the ridge
axis takes on a more notable positive tilt (toward Hudson Bay), the
axis of large-scale downstream troughing will gradually do the same
across the eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes.

Within the cyclonic flow, a significant lead short wave impulse
remains forecast to be accompanied by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard
into the Canadian Maritimes/St. Lawrence Valley. As a similar
trailing perturbation digs across the international border and Upper
Midwest, toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface
ridging is forecast to build southward into much of the interior
U.S. by the end of the period.

It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance
through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the
mid-level cold core (shifting across the upper Great Lakes) and
upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk
for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of
Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level
shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of
tropical moisture, likely will gradually shift southeast of the
southern Florida Peninsula and Keys.

Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to
develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a
weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be
maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and
southwest of the Four Corners region. Mid/upper forcing for ascent
and cooling to the northeast of this feature may contribute to
sufficient destabilization to support convection capable of
producing lightning across the higher terrain of Utah/adjacent
northern Arizona into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 140444
SWODY2
SPC AC 140442

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
nation Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this
period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue
to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant
embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower
Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a
positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after
12Z Wednesday.

In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is
forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf
of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from
the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of
the short wave.

To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale
troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime
emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British
Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night.
With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the
immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies.

Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in
excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to
portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the
Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated
moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into
parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are
expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the
Rockies.

One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core
(including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the
upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day.
Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to
diurnal convective development which might become capable of
producing occasional lightning.

While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West,
modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air
aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might
also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon
and evening.

..Kerr.. 10/14/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 110452
SWODY2
SPC AC 110451

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by
early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will
become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to
the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying
flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including
building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and
digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian
Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period.

In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced
inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing
initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern
Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of
Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through
the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially
near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken
further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady
or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level
perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida.

Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of
the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is
forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal
zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early
Saturday.

...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley...
Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will
suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern
periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization
rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute
to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the
frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday
night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and
cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger
storms seems low.

..Kerr.. 10/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120452
SWODY2
SPC AC 120451

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may develop in a corridor across West Virginia,
and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia, late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some may be
accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potentially
damaging wind gusts.

...Synopsis...
Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
North America will remain amplified through this period, with
further amplification of large-scale troughing forecast across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Models indicate
at least of couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging
within this troughing, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the
Northeast by late Sunday night.

In lower latitudes, a residual mid-level shear axis across the
central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will generally
demarcate the northern periphery of higher moisture content air.
However, a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead
of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon.

...West Virginia into eastern Kentucky/southwest Virginia...
There remains variability among the models concerning the evolution
of surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
Sunday through Sunday night. However, there still appears a general
consensus that a moistening, but well-mixed, boundary layer will
become characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late
Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow pre-frontal corridor
across Tennessee/Kentucky into West Virginia. It appears that peak destabilization will coincide with strengthening westerly deep-layer
wind fields, including to 50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer. Forcing
for ascent in advance of stronger mid-level height falls, which may
not begin overspreading the region until after dark, remains more
unclear. However, a developing pre-frontal low-level upslope flow
component may aid thunderstorm initiation across parts of West
Virginia, and perhaps into eastern Kentucky and southwestern
Virginia by early Sunday evening. If this occurs, the environment
probably will be conducive to a few stronger storms posing a risk
for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 10/12/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 090544
SWODY2
SPC AC 090542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces
early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will
extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton
within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This
cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern
Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the
western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the
majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone,
precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across
the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton.

Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the
Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario
Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to
dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough
moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a
low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale
ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK.
A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across
south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the
modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures
attendant to this shortwave.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton
maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL
Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning
position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and
southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated
greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will
support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a
low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent
convection.

..Mosier.. 10/09/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 100529
SWODY2
SPC AC 100528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend from the
Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern
Quebec into New England throughout the day on Friday. A shortwave
trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress
quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec and adjacent portions of
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. An associated surface low
will move across Ontario just ahead of this shortwave, with an
attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the
northern/central Plains, the Upper/Mid MS Valley, and the Upper
Great Lakes. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of this low,
limiting the thunderstorm potential along most of the front. Some
modest buoyancy may develop across the Upper Great Lakes region
where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling
mid-level temperatures. This may result in deep enough updrafts for
a few lightning flashes between 18Z and 00Z.

Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to drift southeastward from OK into the Lower MS Valley. Cold mid-level
temperatures will accompany this shortwave, and lingering warm-air
advection showers and thunderstorms may result in a few lightning
flashes across eastern OK and northeast TX Friday morning.

Lastly, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected to persist
across central and southern FL throughout the period. Some showers
are likely throughout the day amid confluent low-level northeasterly
flow. However, warm temperatures aloft will limit storm depth
throughout much of the period across the region. The environment
across south FL is expected to become more conducive to deep
convection late Friday night/early Saturday morning as mid-level
temperature cool slightly and low-level flow trends more
southeasterly. Consequently, a few flashes are possible across south
FL and/or the Keys after 00Z.

..Mosier.. 10/10/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 080519
SWODY2
SPC AC 080517

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and
Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures
are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the
Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over
western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this
shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking
it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of
this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest
into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected
to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper
Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this
broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley.

A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection
near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but
the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in
these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution
of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat.

...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton...
Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles
north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue
northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the
west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then
expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL
Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level
flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the
day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will
also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible
via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern
peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While
its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective
bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably
timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado
threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection.

For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest
track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest
forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center.

..Mosier.. 10/08/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 060551
SWODY2
SPC AC 060549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.

...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday,
as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern
third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf
Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low
70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak
destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida
Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong
enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat.

..Broyles.. 10/06/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 070518
SWODY2
SPC AC 070516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern
Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley
off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone
remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west,
expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into
the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery
of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin.

Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be
dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist
across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across
the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection
attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the
region.

Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central
and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical
airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is
forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as
it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening
low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to
spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of
the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer
rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at
the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few
tornadoes.

..Mosier.. 10/07/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 030516
SWODY2
SPC AC 030515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Stronger flow aloft will continue to be confined to the northern
tier of the CONUS on Friday. Two shortwave troughs will progress
through this corridor. One will move from the upper Great Lakes into
the Northeast while another will shift through the Northwest into
the northern Rockies. Ridging aloft will be maintained in the
southern two-thirds of the CONUS. A remnant surface boundary will be
situated along the Gulf Coast. Another cold front will be draped
from the Great Lakes into the central Plains.

A few thunderstorms may be ongoing early Friday morning in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, as modest cooling aloft occurs on the
southern flank of the passing shortwave and weak warm advection
occurs with the low-level jet. Additional thunderstorms are possible
with a weak northward-moving disturbance in the central/southern
Appalachians as well as along the weak Gulf Coast boundary.
Diurnally driven storms are likely in the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not expected with any of this activity.

..Wendt.. 10/03/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday.

...Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes...
Northern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward from the Canadian Prairies and adjacent northern High
Plains through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest on Saturday.
This shortwave is expected to mature as it progresses eastward, with
the resulting closed mid-level cyclone over northwestern Ontario by
early Sunday morning. An associated surface low will accompany this
system, moving eastward across the central portion of Canadian
Prairie Provinces and ending the period stacked beneath the
mid-level low over northwestern Ontario. Cold front attendant to
this surface low will push eastward across the northern and central
Plains through the Upper Midwest. By 12Z Sunday, this front will
likely extend from central Lower MI southwestward through central MO
before then turning more westward and extending along the OK/KS
border vicinity.

Warm-air advection will gradually increase within the warm sector
ahead of the front throughout the period. Low to mid-level
moistening from this warm-air advection coupled with cooling
mid-level temperatures will result in elevated buoyancy across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes from Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this
region as a result. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the
shortwave trough will spread into the region during the evening as
well, supporting moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear.
However, the cloud-bearing layer shear values will be more modest
(i.e. around half of the bulk shear values), and the resulting
combination of modest buoyancy and shear will likely result in
predominantly sub-severe thunderstorms.

...Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast and FL
Peninsula throughout the period as low-level easterlies persist
within a very moist airmass. Limited buoyancy and weak shear should
keep the severe-thunderstorm potential low.

..Mosier.. 10/04/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 050539
SWODY2
SPC AC 050538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OHIO INTO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and
Pennsylvania into West Virginia.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central
Ontario, with enhanced mid-level flow extending throughout the base
of this system from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes and
OH Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress
quickly eastward/northeastward within this belt of stronger flow,
helping to pull the cyclone eastward while also inducing a negative
tilt to the system. By early Sunday, upper troughing will likely
extend from the Ontario/Quebec border southeastward into the
northern Mid-Atlantic.

Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded
over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary
triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday,
with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the
Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern
Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing
eastward/southeastward as well. A narrow corridor of low 60s
dewpoints is anticipated just ahead of the cold front, which is
expected to combine with cooling mid-level temperatures and foster
modest buoyancy. Initial thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated across eastern OH, where a favorable combination of
daytime heating and low-level moisture will destabilize the
pre-frontal airmass.

Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the region as
well, which should allow updrafts to stay ahead of the quick-moving
cold front for at least a few hours. Cold mid-level temperatures and
moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support a hail risk with the
strongest updrafts, particularly with initial development. Bowing
line segments will contribute to a threat for damaging gusts as
well. Surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting
the low-level curvature. Even so, forecast soundings show
southwesterlies strengthening from 15 kt at the surface to 40 kt at
700 mb, which does result in enough storm-relative helicity for some
tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained.

...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula...
Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day
across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure
remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the
moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low.

..Mosier.. 10/05/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 220522
SWODY2
SPC AC 220520

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks
into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday.

...Ozarks to KY/TN...

An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the
southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on
Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb)
associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower
OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop
south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the
MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface
boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River.

While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector,
bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in
the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by
widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation
Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime
heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive
nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain
somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless,
where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across
the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given
moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in
the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and
sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday
afternoon into the evening.

..Leitman.. 09/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230529
SWODY2
SPC AC 230528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians.

...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians...

A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on
Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests
potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning
across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and
destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an
eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening
mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing
support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line
segments possible.

Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the
mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential
upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence
sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of
severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur,
damaging gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240514
SWODY2
SPC AC 240513

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...

An upper low within the base of the larger-scale upper trough
extending from the Great Lakes to the Lower MS Valley will become
cut-off from northern stream flow on Wednesday. As this occurs, the
northern shortwave trough will progress east across the Great Lakes
and southern Ontario. The developing upper cyclone over the
Mid-South/Lower MS Valley will not move much through the period.
However, moderately enhanced southerly deep-layer flow on the
eastern flank of the cut-off low will persist over the Southeast.
Meanwhile, latest forecast guidance and NHC forecasts show a
strengthening tropical cyclone emerging across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. This system is forecast to remain well offshore from the
southwest FL coast through 12z Thursday.

...Southeast...

A stalled surface boundary/inverted trough will extend from near
coastal MS/AL northeast across the central Appalachians. Near and
east of this boundary, south/southeasterly low-level flow will
maintain a very moist airmass with dewpoints from the mid 60s to low
70s F. Potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Wednesday
morning across portions of this area, limiting destabilization.
Despite vertical shear that may otherwise support organized
convection, weak instability and poor lapse rates will limit severe
potential, though the strongest cells may produce locally gusty
winds.

Further south across the FL Peninsula, southeasterly low to midlevel
flow will increase, especially after 00z, as the developing tropical
cyclone emerges into the eastern Gulf. Forecast soundings show
enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs developing late in
the period. However, instability across the Peninsula is expected to
remain weak through early Thursday morning. At this time, tropical
cyclone related tornado potential appears limited through 12z
Thursday.

...Upper OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

A cold front will move east/southeast across the Lower Great Lakes
during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Ahead of this
feature, a corridor of 60s F dewpoints will be in place. However,
surface heating is expected to be muted by cloud cover and showers.
As a result, instability will be weak and lapse rates will remain
poor, precluding severe thunderstorm potential.

..Leitman.. 09/24/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 241731
SWODY2
SPC AC 241730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or brief
tornadoes are possible from southeast Alabama into the western
Florida Panhandle, and across much of the Florida Peninsula.

...Synopsis...
An amplified upper pattern, featuring a ridge extended from northern
Mexico through the northern High Plains and a trough extended from
Ontario into the Lower MS Valley, will cover the CONUS early
Wednesday. Bifurcation of the upper trough is anticipated throughout
the period, with a northern shortwave trough remaining progressive
as it moves across eastern Ontario into southern Quebec, and a
southern upper low stalling over the Mid-South vicinity. The
stalling of the southern upper low will occur as subtropical ridging
builds across the western Atlantic and a tropical cyclone enters the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. Latest forecast guidance from NHC for this
tropical cyclone, which was recently upgraded to Tropical Storm
Helene, suggests the storm will reach hurricane strength during the
day Wednesday, with additional strengthening to major hurricane
strength by early Thursday morning.

Farther west, a progressive shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly across southern British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest,
ending the period over the northern Rockies.

At the surface, a weak front will likely extend from a low over the
Lake Huron vicinity southward through middle TN before arcing more southwestward to another low in southeast TX. Western portion of
this front over TX and LA is forecast to remain progressive, pushing southeastward to the western Gulf Coast by Wednesday evening.
Eastern portion of the front will stall, maintaining a more
north-south orientation from northern AL through southern Lower MI.

...Upper OH Valley through the southern Appalachians into AL, GA,
and FL Panhandle Wednesday morning into the evening...
A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to extend
through the eastern periphery of the upper low developing over the
Mid-South from the FL Panhandle northward into the Upper OH Valley.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated within this
warm conveyor, reaching as far north as western A. However, poor
lapse rates and limited destabilization should mitigate the overall
severe potential across the majority of this region.

An area of locally higher severe potential is anticipated within a
spatially constrained corridor from southeast AL into far southwest
GA and the western FL Panhandle, just west of the primary axis of
precipitation anticipated within the warm conveyor. Here, a mix of
low 70s dewpoints, modest heating, and moderate mid-level flow could
result in a few thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and/or a
brief tornado or two.

...Much of the FL Peninsula...
Rainbands associated with tropical cyclone Helene are forecast to
move across the FL Peninsula throughout the period. At the same
time, low to mid-level flow attendant to the cyclone will increase
as the cyclone and its expansive wind field spread northward. As a
result, vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized
storm structure. Primary mitigating factor is warm, poor lapse rate
profiles that limit buoyancy. Brief tornadoes will be possible
within any updrafts that are able to mature/persist.

..Mosier.. 09/24/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 260534
SWODY2
SPC AC 260532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a few tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts
exists from the central Appalachians into the Carolinas and southern
Virginia on Friday.

...Central Appalachians and Southern Mid-Atlantic...

The expansive, enhanced low/midlevel flow field on the eastern
periphery of the remnants of Hurricane Helene will impact the
central Appalachians east to portions of coastal SC/NC/southern VA
through Friday afternoon/evening. Convective bands will likely be
ongoing Friday morning across the Pee Dee region of SC, and lift
northward through the afternoon. As a dry slot punches quickly
north/northeast behind this band of convection, the severe risk will
quickly come to an end from south to north by late afternoon or
early evening. Supercell wind profiles, with enlarged, looping
low-level hodographs are evident in forecast soundings around the
region. Strong 0-1 km SRH and surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F
(resulting in favorable low-level instability) will support a
tornado risk with cells within the northward moving convective
bands. Furthermore, given the already strong low-level flow field,
strong thunderstorm wind gusts also will be possible.

...TN/OH Valley vicinity...

Strong winds will likely occur from the central Appalachians
westward across the OH/TN Valley vicinity as Helene tracks
north/northwest and becomes absorbed by the mid/upper cyclone over
the Mid-South region. However, these gusty winds will be tied to the transitioning tropical system, and less influenced by convective
processes, precluding severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 09/26/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 270545
SWODY2
SPC AC 270543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level low across the Ohio Valley will be in the process of
weakening on Saturday. There will be a lingering mid-level jet
across parts of Southeast into the southern Appalachians. However,
dry air wrapping into the Southeast, along with remaining cloud
cover and precipitation, should keep convection shallow and
surface-based buoyancy to a minimum.

Rich moisture will remain across much of the Florida Peninsula.
Sufficient surface heating is expected to promote the development of
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Poor lapse rates aloft
and the displacement of the stronger mid-level winds well to the
north will keep severe potential low with this activity.

A pocket of mid-level moisture in the Four Corners vicinity may
promote some convection in the higher terrain of south-central
Colorado into north-central New Mexico. Forecast soundings suggest
most convection will not be deep enough for charge separation except
perhaps on an isolated basis. Thunderstorm potential should remain
below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/27/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 280553
SWODY2
SPC AC 280551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low in the Tennessee/mid Ohio Valleys will make
little progress eastward on Sunday. This low will be weakening and
in the process of becoming and open wave during the period. Ridging
aloft will be the main feature in the Southwest into the Midwest,
while a strong upper-level trough will be present in the
Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, the pattern will become
more disorganized beneath the upper low as that features weakens. A
front will remain along and just offshore of the eastern coastline.

Thunderstorms are possible from the Florida Peninsula into the
Carolinas and southern parts of Virginia. Some modest mid-level flow enhancement will remain in parts of the Southeast and Carolinas. A
stronger storm or two could potentially develop in central/eastern
North Carolina as heating appears it could support around 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, weak lapse rates/warm temperatures aloft will keep
buoyancy generally limited and convection rather shallow. The
expected environment continues to suggest severe thunderstorm
potential is low. A few isolated lightning flashes may also occur in
central Utah as a weak upper-level shortwave moves into the Great
Basin. Coverage is expected to remain below 10%.

..Wendt.. 09/28/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 290455
SWODY2
SPC AC 290453

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening, positively-tilted upper trough will continue eastward
in the central/southern Appalachians on Monday. On the southern
flank of this trough, mid-level winds will remain modestly enhanced
from Georgia into parts of the eastern Carolinas. Thermodynamic
profiles across the region suggest convection should remain rather
shallow due to warmer temperatures at mid/upper levels. This will
particularly be the case with northern/western extent closer to the
remnant upper level circulation. A few deeper updrafts are possible
near the eastern coast of North Carolina. Despite adequate shear,
weak lapse rates aloft and minimal forcing for ascent will limit
potential for severe storms.

Across the Florida Peninsula, a moist airmass will remain in place.
Daytime heating and ascent along the sea breeze boundary will
promote isolated to scattered storm development during the
afternoon. Weak shear will limit severe potential, however.

Though limited, mid-level moisture within the upper-level ridge will
allow isolated thunderstorms to develop within the higher terrain in
the Four Corners vicinity. Slightly greater coverage may be realized
in central Colorado where PWAT values are forecast to be higher.

..Wendt.. 09/29/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 300459
SWODY2
SPC AC 300458

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower
Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far
southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs.

A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern
Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will
similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and
the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With
surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of
500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb
temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are
unlikely.

Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the
Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate
storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon
Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon.

..Wendt.. 09/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 010500
SWODY2
SPC AC 010458

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal flow aloft will develop across the northern CONUS while
upper-level ridging will be present in the south on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Florida Peninsula
where daytime heating of a moist airmass and lift from sea breeze
boundaries should promote widely scattered to scattered coverage.
Weak convection could develop along the Blue Ridge, but increasing
ridging aloft through the day should keep thunderstorm potential
well below 10%. Additional very isolated activity could develop
along parts of the Mogollon Rim, but coverage should remain below
10% here as well.

..Wendt.. 10/01/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 020459
SWODY2
SPC AC 020457

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A quasi-zonal upper-level jet will be present across the northern
CONUS on Thursday. Southern portions of the CONUS will experience
modest upper-level ridging. At the surface, a remnant cold front
will remain along the Gulf Coast with a secondary, stronger cold
front moving into the central Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest.

Thunderstorms are most likely to the south of the Gulf Coast
boundary. Scattered storms can be expected during the afternoon in
the Florida Peninsula. Towards Friday morning, a weak disturbance
should promote thunderstorms from southeast Louisiana into the
Florida Panhandle. An isolated storm or two is possible in northern
Missouri overnight Thursday as elevated instability develops in the
area. Very weak forcing will keep coverage below 10% should
initiation occur. Severe weather is not expected with any activity.

..Wendt.. 10/02/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150650
SWODY2
SPC AC 150648

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CST Fri Nov 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday from the central
Plains northeastward into the western Great Lakes, but no severe
threat is expected.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low will move into the Dakotas on Saturday, as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place across the much of the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will
be possible from the afternoon into the overnight within a broad a
corridor of strong low-level flow from Kansas northeastward into the
upper Great Lakes. Instability is expected to be minimal, and a
severe threat is not expected across the continental U.S. Saturday
and Saturday night.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 160657
SWODY2
SPC AC 160655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts
of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through
daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a
tornado or two.

...Southern High Plains...
A mid-level low and an associated trough will move into northern
Mexico on Sunday, reaching the southern High Plains Sunday night.
Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will occur across the
southern Plains. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase in the
50s F across parts of west and northwest Texas, and into the 60s F
across much of west-central and north-central Texas. A large area of
convection is expected to develop by early Sunday evening ahead of
the trough from southeast New Mexico into parts of far west and
west-central Texas. This will occur as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet strengthens across the southern High Plains. Aided by strong
large-scale ascent, and a rapid low-level jet response, scattered
strong to severe storms are expected to develop over parts of the
southern High Plains. Model forecasts are in relatively good
agreement, showing potential for MCS development late Sunday evening
into Sunday night.

Although instability will remain weak ahead of the system, a steady
ramp up of instability and low-level moisture is expected over the
southern Plains. Between 03Z and 09Z on Sunday evening, ECMWF
forecast soundings increase MLCAPE into the 500 to 1000 J/kg range
over parts of west-central and northwest Texas. This suggests that
the severe threat that develops with the MCS should continue into
the overnight period. The current thinking is that a line of strong
to severe storms will become organized and move across west-central
and northwest Texas from late Sunday evening into the overnight. The
primary mode is expected to be linear, although isolated discrete
supercells, with tornado potential, may develop ahead of the line.
Otherwise, the primary threat should be for severe gusts along the
leading edge of a quasi-linear convective system. The severe threat
may continue to the end of the period, as a band of focused
large-scale ascent couples with a strong low-level jet to maintain
strong convective development with the MCS.

..Broyles.. 11/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170655
SWODY2
SPC AC 170654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of north Texas and southern
Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is
expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and
evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains
eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough is forecast to be in the
southern High Plains at the start of the period. A squall-line is
expected to be ongoing ahead of the trough at 12Z from central and
north Texas into southern Oklahoma. Along the leading edge of this
organized linear MCS, a wind-damage threat is expected Monday
morning. A tornado will also be possible with any rotating element
within the line. The line is expected to weaken by midday as the
mid-level trough moves away to the northeast, with the associated
low moving into the central Plains. As surface heating takes place,
additional thunderstorms are expected to develop during the
afternoon across parts of the southern and central Plains. Isolated
severe gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells.
Ahead of the trough, an isolated wind-damage and/or tornado threat
may develop across the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks during the
late afternoon. The severe threat is expected to be marginal due to
very weak instability.

...Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley...
In the wake of the mid-level trough, southwesterly mid-level flow
will be in place across the western Gulf Coast states on Monday. A
moist and unstable airmass is forecast to move from far southeast
Texas late Monday afternoon into southern Louisiana during the
evening. Thunderstorms will likely develop across much of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, as low-level flow increases in the evening.
Model consensus suggests that MCS development will be likely across
parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. A relatively large number of
storms should help to overturn much of the airmass. Also, the
stronger mid-level flow is forecast to remain well to the north,
suggesting that any wind-damage threat associated with the MCS
should be marginal.

..Broyles.. 11/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180634
SWODY2
SPC AC 180633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a
tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday.

...Central Gulf Coast States...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over much of the
Southeast on Tuesday, as a cold front advances eastward into the
region. A moist airmass will be in place ahead of the front in the
Gulf Coast states, with surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower
70s F. As surface heating takes place during the day, thunderstorm
development is expected from near the front eastward across the much
of the moist sector. Although instability will be weak, strong
low-level flow will aid convective development, and a few severe
storms will be possible. The greatest severe threat will exist in
the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast, where the combination of
low-level shear and moisture may be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Broyles.. 11/18/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 190551
SWODY2
SPC AC 190550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms
are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along
the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...Synopsis...
On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over
northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast
across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively
tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max
will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max
will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern
Appalachians.

Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the
Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains.

At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies
into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of
Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop
near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the
Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day.

...Carolinas...
Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the
eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the
cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough
swings east, with very weak instability developing.

Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence
inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of
appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong
storms are not expected.

...Florida...
Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold
front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula,
it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such,
despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the
western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective.

...Ohio and Vicinity...
A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the
upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday.
Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures
aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the
cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt
ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely,
a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures
aloft.

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature
gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly
weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over
the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving
ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts
cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time.

..Jewell.. 11/19/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 210614
SWODY2
SPC AC 210612

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest Coast
on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A large, deep upper low will exist over the northeast Friday
morning, and will gradually weaken as it drifts east through the
period. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will slowly shift east from the
Rockies into the Plains, while yet another trough pushes across the
Pacific Northwest region late.

Substantial northwest surface winds will maintain relatively stable
conditions from the Plains to the East Coast, with no instability
forecast over much of the CONUS.

The exception will be again along the coastal counties of WA and OR,
as strong cooling aloft occurs. Scattered low-topped convection will
be most likely over the ocean overnight. A few thunderstorms may
move onshore, but at this time the stronger shear farther north does
not appear to overlap with the minimal instability required for a
severe threat.

..Jewell.. 11/21/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 220541
SWODY2
SPC AC 220539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the CONUS Saturday.

...Synopsis...
On Saturday, a large upper trough will move out of the northeastern
states, with a weak upper ridge moving across the Plains and toward
the MS Valley. To the west, a large upper trough will continue
eastward across the Great Basin and much of the central and northern
Rockies. A lead wave will likely pivot northeastward toward the
Dakotas late.

At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist from the
southern Plains into the Southeast, maintaining stable conditions.
Low pressure will exist ahead of a cold front from the eastern Great
Basin into the northern High Plains by late in the day.

A low chance of a few lightning flashes may exist along the coastal
Pacific Northwest where cold temperatures aloft may result in weak
buoyancy. Otherwise, minimal activity will be possible over parts of
central ID and vicinity as lapse rates steepen.

..Jewell.. 11/22/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 230548
SWODY2
SPC AC 230546

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the USA Sunday.

...Synopsis...
On Sunday, an upper trough will depart the northeastern states as an
elongated mid/upper level speed max extends across the Four Corners
states and into the Plains. This feature will phase with an upper
low/trough extending from southern SK/MB into the northern Plains,
with ridging over the East.

A low pressure trough will exist ahead of the cold front from the
upper MS Valley into the southern High Plains around 00Z, extending
from Lower MI into northern TX by 12Z Monday.

Ahead of this front, southerly winds will result in a batch of low
60s F dewpoints from eastern TX toward AR, but the air mass should
remain capped with little of any convection along the intersecting
cold front.

Elsewhere, cool air aloft will remain over much of the northwestern
states, with little if any instability to support thunderstorms.

..Jewell.. 11/23/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 240553
SWODY2
SPC AC 240551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night
from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps
across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great
Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow
aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave
moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin.

In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located
over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending
southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z.
This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest
Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday.

Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F
dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and
western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature,
especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther
southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg.

Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift
along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front.

..Jewell.. 11/24/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 250549
SWODY2
SPC AC 250547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal across the CONUS on Tuesday, as
a negative-tilt shortwave trough moves into Quebec, and a cold front
progresses across the remainder of the Southeast.

Showers may linger along the front from the southern Appalachians to
the Mid Atlantic Tuesday morning, and a lighting flash or two cannot
be ruled out over the southern AL to GA portion of the front.
However, any convection should be short lived.

Behind this initial system, the flow regime will become zonal into
Wed morning, though a new trough may start to amplify across the
Four Corners states. At that time, instability sufficient for
thunderstorms appears unlikely.

..Jewell.. 11/25/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 300634
SWODY2
SPC AC 300633

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will
persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow
across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the
western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into
southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With
the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night.

A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with
lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but
overall coverage should remain limited.

..Bunting.. 11/30/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 301716
SWODY2
SPC AC 301714

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of
the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is
reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying
the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the
relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates
and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled
out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake
Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too
limited for General Thunderstorm highlights.

Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a
weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this
activity should remain offshore.

..Weinman.. 11/30/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 010503
SWODY2
SPC AC 010501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south
Texas. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
A dry, continental polar air mass will be in place across the CONUS
on Monday. The only exception is across far south Texas. Easterly
flow will strengthen across the Gulf on Sunday night and Monday as a
strong anticyclone moves into the central CONUS. This will cause mid
to upper 60s dewpoints to advect inland across far south Texas.
Meager instability may develop which could result in a few isolated thunderstorms. However, this is more likely offshore where somewhat
greater instability is likely.

..Bentley.. 12/01/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 020702
SWODY2
SPC AC 020701

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast and into
portions of East Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will move off the east coast on Tuesday.
Surface high pressure will progress east in its wake with a strong
anticyclone moving from the Ozarks to the southern Appalachians
through the weekend.

Easterly flow across the Gulf of Mexico on the southern periphery of
the anticyclone will result in some moisture making it inland across
far south Texas. A few thunderstorms will be possible along the
immediate coastal areas during the morning and early afternoon
hours. As low-level flow becomes southerly and strengthens somewhat,
moisture advection around 1 km will result in increasing elevated
instability. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible in this
warm-air advection regime early Wednesday morning.

..Bentley.. 12/02/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 030636
SWODY2
SPC AC 030634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss
on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A large, upper-level trough will move into southern Ontario and the
Great Lakes Region on Wednesday with a very strong mid-level jet
along the western periphery of this trough. As this occurs, a
compact low-level jet is forecast to develop across east Texas and
move into Louisiana and far western Mississippi during the evening
and overnight hours. As low-level southerly flow increases across
east Texas, low-level moisture will lead to modest elevated
instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MUCAPE). Scattered thunderstorms are
possible across this region for much of the period. However,
instability appears too weak too warrant any substantial severe
weather threat.

..Bentley.. 12/03/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 040651
SWODY2
SPC AC 040649

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the
central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico
during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the
Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal
instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The
front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the
overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching
mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/04/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 050657
SWODY2
SPC AC 050655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New
Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
On Friday, a mid-level trough will slowly drift eastward along the Arizona/Mexico border. Stronger mid-level flow will round the base
of this trough Friday afternoon and emerge into the southern Plains
Friday night and early Saturday. Some moisture return will occur
above the surface front which will result in weak instability across
Texas and perhaps into southeast New Mexico. As stronger mid-level
flow emerges across the southern Plains, isolated to scattered
elevated thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico and
Far West Texas, to parts of central Texas. However, weak instability
should keep any severe weather threat limited.

..Bentley.. 12/05/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 060636
SWODY2
SPC AC 060634

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas
on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

...Synopsis...
A southern-stream upper low is forecast to begin the period over the AZ/NM/Mexico border intersection vicinity before progressing
northeastward through the southern High Plains throughout the
period. Enhanced mid-level flow will accompany this low, spreading
eastward across the southern Plains. Low-level flow across the
southern Plains will also increase ahead of this system, resulting
in strengthening warm-air advection throughout the day.

Surface easterlies are expected across the Gulf of Mexico, but a
stationary boundary along the TX Coast will prevent inland
penetration of any notable low-level moisture. Even so, moderate
mid-level moisture and increasing large-scale lift ahead of the
approaching upper low will result in a large area of precipitation.
Cooling mid-level temperatures may help support modest buoyancy,
with isolated thunderstorms expected within the larger precipitation
shield. The probability of any severe thunderstorms is very low.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 070652
SWODY2
SPC AC 070650

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and Mid-South on Sunday. The probability for
severe thunderstorms is very low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper low expected to be over the TX Panhandle early Sunday is
forecast to devolve into an open wave as it progresses northeastward
across OK and the Ozarks into the Mid MS Valley. Enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will accompany this system, spreading from the
southern Plains across the Mid/Lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast as the wave moves northeastward. Strengthening low-level
jet is anticipated ahead of this system as well. This jet will
likely be located over east TX late Sunday afternoon before evolving
quickly northeastward and ending the period from central AL into
eastern KY.

Progression of this system will displace it north of the more
favorable low-level moisture, which will be confined to the upper TX
Coast early Sunday before advecting northeastward into more of the
Lower MS Valley/Mid-South throughout the day. Warm-air advection
across this moistening warm sector and modest buoyancy may result in
elevated thunderstorms embedded within the larger precipitation
shield. Deep-layer vertical shear will be strong and there is a very
low probability that a storm or two could become strong enough to
produce small hail, particularly across northern LA and southern AR.
However, the limited buoyancy should keep the overall severe
potential low.

..Mosier.. 12/07/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 080655
SWODY2
SPC AC 080653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into
much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification
on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to
extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial
evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough
moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves
from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario.

A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes
shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent
shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push
southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the
southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the
front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the
period over northern LA/west-central MS.

This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad
warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints
likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad
area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector
throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse
rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow
will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday
night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs,
with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential.
Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it
moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However,
minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability
potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall
severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any
probabilities.

..Mosier.. 12/08/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 090659
SWODY2
SPC AC 090658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central and south Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
Deep upper troughing is forecast to extend from central CA into the Southwest/northern Mexico Tuesday. This troughing will be anchored
by a shortwave trough expected to move from the southern
High Plains eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the
parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the
mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. A belt of 100-120 kt
500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians
early Wednesday morning.

A surface low initially near the ArkLaMiss region is expected to
move quickly northeast toward the upper Ohio Valley, with some
guidance showing secondary cyclogenesis later in the period along
the trailing cold front that will move across the Southeast.

...Southeast...
A moderately moist warm sector will precede the front forecast to
move across the region, with dewpoints increasing into the mid 60s
by the afternoon across central AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Modest
secondary cyclogenesis appears possible along the front as it moves
through central AL and intersects slightly greater returning
low-level moisture. Buoyancy will remain modest, mitigated by poor
lapse rates and relatively warm profiles, but vertical shear will be
strong (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear greater than 50 kt) and supportive of organization with any deeper, more persistent updrafts. These deeper
updrafts appear most probable within the warm sector near the
developing secondary surface low (i.e. central/southern AL into
southwest GA and the adjacent FL Panhandle) during the late
afternoon. Any sustained cells/clusters within this environment
could pose a threat of isolated damaging gusts and possibly a
tornado. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the
northern and eastern extent of the severe threat, though a strong
storm or two cannot be ruled out from north AL/GA into
middle/eastern TN.

...GA/north FL in the Carolinas and Outer Banks late Tuesday night
into early Wednesday morning...
A strong south-southwesterly low-level jet is expected to develop
from Georgia through the eastern Carolinas late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning, in response to the intensifying shortwave trough
moving into the Southeast. Warm-air advection associated with this
jet coupled with strengthening large-scale ascent is expected to
result in increasingly broad area of precipitation across the
region. Surface-based storms appears unlikely within this
environment, but robust wind fields could still support a strong
gust or two.

Greater low-level moisture may advect into the NC Outer Banks
vicinity early Wednesday morning, with low-level and deep-layer
shear increasing across the region as well. Any surface-based storms
could have some severe potential. However, guidance differs on how
far the mid 60s dewpoints penetrate inland, which, given the warm
mid-level temperatures, currently limits the predictability of
surface-based storms.

..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 100657
SWODY2
SPC AC 100656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead
of a cold front from eastern North Carolina into southern New
England on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough is expected to extend from central Canada
southward along the length of the MS Valley into the western Gulf
early Wednesday morning. A shortwave trough embedded within the base
of this larger troughing is forecast to move quickly northeastward
from the Lower MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. In response, the
parent upper troughing will shift eastward while also deamplifying.
Strong mid/upper flow is anticipated throughout the eastern
periphery of this troughing, with a 100-110 kt 500 mb jet shifting northeastward from the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic throughout
the day.

An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward from
northern VA through the Hudson Valley into NH/VT. An attendant cold
front is forecast to sharpens as it moves quickly eastward, moving
off the East Coast by Wednesday evening.

...Eastern North Carolina to southern New England...
Low to mid 60s dewpoints are expected to advect northward into the
Carolinas and northern Mid-Atlantic States ahead of the approaching
cold front, with mid to upper 50s possible farther north into
southern New England. These dewpoints will support modest buoyancy,
with the overall buoyancy tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates and
widespread precipitation. Even so, a strongly forced convective line
is still expected to develop along the front as it moves quickly
eastward across the region during the afternoon. Deeper convection
is anticipated in this line when increasing large-scale ascent
aligns with the low-level forcing along the front. Guidance differs
on when and where this occurs, with some guidance suggesting it
occurs primarily offshore. Even so, there is still enough potential
for this occur onshore to maintain probabilities for strong gusts.
Expectation is for this deeper convection to combine with the robust
kinematic fields to provide a large reservoir of high-momentum air
capable of mixing down to the surface. Given the strength of the
forcing, this potential exists as far north across southern New
England where buoyancy is expected to be very low.

Additionally, some potential exists for surface-based storms within
the warm sector ahead of the front, provided that antecedent
precipitation does not entirely stabilize the low levels. Some
guidance suggests a pre-frontal band of surface-based storms
develops with low-level confluence within the warm sector over
coastal NC and the Outer Banks.

..Mosier.. 12/10/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 110624
SWODY2
SPC AC 110622

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
In the wake of a strong shortwave trough moving into the Canadian
Maritimes, a mid/upper cyclone is forecast to progress from the
Ontario/Quebec border vicinity eastward through Quebec on Thursday.
Strong mid-level flow throughout the base of this cyclone is
expected to extend from the northern/central Plains through the
Northeast. Even with these strong dynamics, extensive surface
ridging is expected from the northern Plains into much of the
eastern CONUS, promoting dry and stable conditions. Consequently, no thunderstorms are anticipated.

Farther west, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to
progress across the Great Basin into the Four Corners region while
enhanced mid-level westerly flow associated with it spreads from
southern CA across the Southwest. Some modified moisture return is
anticipated across south TX late Thursday night/early Friday
morning, but this will remain well downstream of the shortwave
trough. As such, the lack of moisture/buoyancy ahead of this
shortwave will preclude thunderstorm development.

..Mosier.. 12/11/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 120656
SWODY2
SPC AC 120655

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Four
Corners before continuing eastward across the central Rockies and
ending the period as a closed cyclone over the central Plains. An
associated surface low is expected to move quickly northeastward
just ahead of this shortwave, progressing from the northeast
NM/southeast CO vicinity into eastern KS. As it does, an attendant
cold front will push eastward across the southern High Plains and
western KS.

Modified moisture return is anticipated within the strong low to
mid-level flow preceding this shortwave and its attendant cold
front. Low 60s dewpoints will likely reach north Texas by
early Saturday morning but the mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
remain confined to the TX Coastal Plain. A strengthening low-level
jet and associated warm-air advection over the pre-frontal warm
sector (from southeast TX into the Lower MO Valley) is forecast to
result in elevated thunderstorms from Friday evening through
Saturday morning. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, with the
expectation that most updrafts will be weak and transient. Strong
vertical shear (i.e. 0-6 km bulk shear around 50 kt) may support
small hail within the deepest, most persistent updrafts.

..Mosier.. 12/12/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 130555
SWODY2
SPC AC 130554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Central/South-Central States...

An upper cyclone and attendant trough will lift east/northeast from
the central/southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Saturday. Only
a weak reflection of this upper system is expected at the surface,
where a low over eastern KS during the morning hours will generally
weaken as it lifts northeast into the Upper Midwest. Southerly
low-level flow will transport 60s F surface dewpoints into the TX
coast and east TX and the Sabine Valley vicinity through evening.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible in this low-level warm
advection regime ahead of the upper trough and weakening surface low
from east TX/LA into the Lower and Mid-MS Valley. A strong storm or
two may be possible across southeast TX into LA where deeper
boundary-layer moisture and modest surface-based destabilization
will overlap with weak vertical shear. However, large-scale ascent
will remain weak as large-scale ascent remains displaced to the
north. Additionally, low and midlevel lapse rates will remain poor.
Overall severe potential is expected to remain negligible, and
thunderstorm activity across the region should diminish during the
evening hours.

...Pacific Coast States...

Persistent onshore flow is forecast through the evening hours as an
upper trough located offshore the Pacific coast Saturday morning
moves inland toward the Rockies by Sunday morning. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected, especially during the 12-18z time frame
when large-scale ascent will be maximized amid steepening midlevel
lapse rates. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread
portions of central CA during the morning to midday time period,
resulting in some hodograph curvature. However, cool surface
temperatures and very modest instability (generally less than 200
J/kg MLCAPE) will likely limit surface-based convection.

..Leitman.. 12/13/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 150621
SWODY2
SPC AC 150619

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CST Sun Dec 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday.

...TX/OK/MO to the Lower MS Valley...

An upper trough over the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest
Monday morning will weaken as it shifts east/northeast across the
Great Lakes. The strongest deep-layer southwesterly flow associated
with this system will mainly be focused over the Mid/Lower MO and
Mid-MS Valleys into the Great Lakes. Though, modest vertical shear
will extend as far south as eastern OK and the Ozarks into the
ArkLaTex vicinity. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
extend from southeast MO into southeast OK and northwest Texas
Monday morning. This front will track east/southeast through the
period, becoming positioned from the TN Valley toward the ArkLaTex
and central TX by Tuesday morning.

Ahead of the front, upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will be
maintained by south/southwesterly low-level flow from central TX
toward the MO Bootheel and the Lower MS Valley. Scattered elevated thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from eastern OK into southern
MO and parts of AR. Additional convection will develop near the southeast-advancing cold front as far northeast as the Lower OH
Valley and southeast into central TX and the ArkLaTex/Lower MS
Valley through the period.

Stronger large-scale ascent and vertical shear will remain focused
north, and out of phase with, the area of better low-level moisture
across the south-central states. A couple of stronger storms may
produce small hail early in the period from eastern OK toward the MO
Bootheel. However, low-level inhibition and poor low-level lapse
rates are expected to limit surface-based instability. Deep-layer
flow parallel to the surface boundary, limited surface-based
instability, and weakening shear/ascent with southward extent,
should limit overall severe potential on Monday.

..Leitman.. 12/15/2024

$$
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ACUS02 KWNS 160633
SWODY2
SPC AC 160631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Lower
Ohio and Tennessee Valley vicinities and across Florida on Tuesday. Severe-thunderstorm chances are low at this time.

...Eastern OK/ArkLaTex/Ozarks Vicinity...

An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS
Valley vicinity on Tuesday. A 500 mb jet max around 50-70 kt will
become oriented from eastern OK into the Ohio Valley/lower Great
Lakes area after 06z, and stronger height falls are not expected to
overspread the region until the nighttime hours. At the surface, 50s
to low/mid 60s F dewpoints are expected across south/east TX into
the Mid-South vicinity. A strong cold front will track southeast
across KS/OK during the evening, and by 06z be positioned from
northern AR into southeast OK and north-central TX. This boundary
will become a focus for increasing isentropic ascent and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms during the overnight/early Wednesday period.

Neutral height tendencies will likely suppress convection during the
day across much of the area. As convection develops along the
advancing cold front overnight, uncertainty remains regarding any
surface-based instability overlapping with stronger vertical shear
(which decreases rapidly with southward extent). Forecast soundings
vary across forecast guidance, but at least weak elevated
instability is expected driven by cooling aloft. Stronger elevated
cores could produce small hail, given forecast lapse rates around
6.8-7 C/km amid 30+ kt effective shear magnitudes (especially from
southeast OK into AR). Overall, severe potential appears quite
conditional for the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Will hold
off on including low-end hail probabilities, though a Marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk may be needed in later outlooks depending on
forecast trends.

...FL Peninsula...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday as a moist airmass
and at least weak instability overspread the region. Onshore,
easterly low-level flow will provide convergence along an inverted
surface trough. Given sufficient destabilization, this will support
development of thunderstorms moving onshore through evening. Weak
0-6 km bulk shear (less than 20 kt) will preclude organized
convection, and severe storms are not expected.

..Leitman.. 12/16/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 170632
SWODY2
SPC AC 170631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the lower Ohio Valley southwest into northeast/central Texas early on Wednesday and across the Southeast,
Carolinas, and Florida Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A positively tilted upper trough will develop east across the
eastern U.S. on Wednesday. Moderate mid/upper level southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread the OH/TN Valleys into the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic regions. At the surface, a cold front
will extend from southern OH to southeast AR to central TX at the
beginning of the period. This front will develop southeast across
the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, mostly moving offshore from the Gulf
and Atlantic coasts by Thursday morning.

...Northeast TX to the TN Valley...

Showers and elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near the
surface cold front Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings show poor
low-level lapse rates and little surface-based instability. However,
up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE will be present, courtesy of cool midlevel
temperatures and modest midlevel lapse rates. Deep-layer flow is
forecast to remain mostly unidirectional and parallel to the front,
suggesting convective undercutting by the boundary/outflows. While
some briefly organized structure may persist the first hour or two
of the forecast period, convection is expected to rapidly decrease
in intensity with southeast extent across the TN Valley/Gulf Coast
states. This is largely due to more modest boundary-layer moisture
and weakening vertical shear across MS/AL.

...FL/GA/Carolinas...

Isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching upper trough/surface
front will increase across the region through day. However,
large-scale ascent will remain weak until late, with the vorticity
maxima trailing well behind the surface front. Nevertheless, showers
and isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the low-level
warm-advection regime, especially during the afternoon/early
evening. Forecast guidance varies in the depiction of the low-level thermodynamics and degree of destabilization. Though some support
for an organized storm or two is plausible, given around 750-1000
J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt. While a
strong storm could produce gusty winds or even small hail (given
somewhat elongated/straight hodographs and cool midlevel temps),
forecast confidence regarding severe potential remains fairly low.
Will refrain from introducing low-end/Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk probabilities at this time, though an outlook area may be required
in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 12/17/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 180550
SWODY2
SPC AC 180549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Florida...

A shortwave upper trough within the area of broader eastern CONUS
troughing will be oriented from the Carolinas to the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Thursday morning. This system will shift east across FL
and offshore the Atlantic coast through 00z. At the surface, a cold
front located over north FL early in the day will develop southward
across the Peninsula. Low-level flow will be veered/northerly ahead
of the front, resulting in little low-level convergence.
Additionally, stronger large-scale ascent will remain well north of
the Peninsula. While weak destabilization is forecast (500-1000 J/kg
MLCAPE), mainly over the southern Peninsula, poor lapse rates and
warm midlevel temperatures will preclude severe thunderstorm
potential. Most CAMs and calibrated thunder guidance also indicate
little thunderstorm activity. Will maintain 10 percent general
thunder probabilities for the southeast FL coast, but even that may
be generous.

..Leitman.. 12/18/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 200550
SWODY2
SPC AC 200549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Thu Dec 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday.

...Discussion...
The large-scale pattern will be progressive on Saturday, with a
shortwave trough and related frontal band moving inland across the
Pacific Northwest and northern California. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates and weak buoyancy could yield isolated thunderstorms
mainly for coastal areas of Oregon and northern California during
the morning, and possibly into the afternoon. Severe thunderstorms
are not expected given the minimal buoyancy but gusty winds could
occur with a storm or two along the immediate coast.

Elsewhere, prevalent surface high pressure east of the Rockies and
stable conditions will preclude thunderstorms.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 210648
SWODY2
SPC AC 210646

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday.

...Discussion...
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS on
Sunday. A continental polar airmass will remain across the eastern
CONUS which will preclude thunderstorm potential for most of the
country. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific
Northwest and northern California coasts, particularly Sunday late
afternoon and evening as the next in a series of shortwave troughs
approaches the coast. Severe storms are not currently expected given
the limited buoyancy.

..Guyer.. 12/21/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 220701
SWODY2
SPC AC 220659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is expected to amplify from the central Rockies
to the south-central High Plains on Monday. Weak surface wave
development is expected across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a
modest increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as weak
buoyancy develops with an upper trough approaching the coast and an inland-moving frontal band.

..Guyer.. 12/22/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 221718
SWODY2
SPC AC 221716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

A midlevel shortwave trough will amplify from the central Rockies to
the south-central High Plains on Monday. A weak surface low will
likely develop across Texas into southern Oklahoma, with a modest
increase in low-level moisture across central/east Texas into
southern Oklahoma in advance of a cold front moving southeastward
across the southern High Plains. Increasing forcing for ascent and
elevated moisture transport should lead to increasing elevated
convection Monday night across north/northeast Texas into southeast
Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex. While a mid-level capping inversion may
tend to persist, updrafts should increasingly reach a sufficient depth/temperature late Monday night into early Tuesday for at least
isolated thunderstorms. Severe thunderstorms are not currently
expected given access to only weak elevated buoyancy.

Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible late Monday night
across the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California as
temperatures aloft cool with the approaching mid-level trough.

..Bentley.. 12/22/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 230702
SWODY2
SPC AC 230700

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CST Mon Dec 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few locally severe storms could occur across parts of central and
East Texas on Tuesday.

...Central/East Texas...
A southern-stream shortwave trough will amplify and spread
east-southeastward on Tuesday across the south-central Plains toward
the Ozarks. Low-level moisture will modestly increase across the
Texas coastal plain into south-central/east Texas during the day.
Lower 60s F surface dewpoints will become increasingly common inland
ahead a southeast-moving cold front that will extend from
north-central Texas southwestward toward the Edwards Plateau Tuesday
afternoon.

In proximity to a surface wave and near/north of a warm front,
scattered convection should be ongoing Tuesday morning across far north/northeast Texas and the ArkLaTex vicinity/southeast Oklahoma.
Modest diurnal destabilization (up to 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) should
occur ahead of the southeastward-moving effective cold front, mainly
across south-central to east/southeast Texas including the I-35/I-45
corridors. As this occurs, a diurnally related intensification of
storms is expected near the southeast-advancing front, and possibly
also in the nearby free warm sector during the afternoon. A few of
these storms could be severe.

Effective shear will not be overly strong (30-35 kt), including some
flow weakness continuing to be noted in model soundings around 2-3
km AGL. Even so, some organized storm modes including weak/transient
supercells could occur with marginally severe hail and/or a few
locally severe wind gusts, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

...Northern California/Pacific Northwest...
As a prominent upper-level trough and related frontal band moves
inland, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across northern
California coastal areas and interior valley on Tuesday, early in
the day with the frontal band and with post-frontal cellular
convection during the day as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen. A
more limited/isolated thunderstorm potential will also exist across
other parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest.

..Guyer.. 12/23/2024

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ACUS02 KWNS 261722
SWODY2
SPC AC 261720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur across
parts of the central Gulf Coast into central Mississippi and
Alabama.

...Synopsis...
A progressive pattern with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave
troughs will traverse the Southern Plains and Southeast on Friday.
The first of these shortwave troughs, associated with the DY1 severe
weather risk, will be located in the Mid-Mississippi Valley on
Friday morning. A secondary mid-level trough will cross the Mid-Mississippi/Lower-Mississippi valley between 18Z and 00Z on
Friday. Finally, another mid-level trough will start to sharpen
across central/northern Texas toward the end of the period.

...Central Gulf Coast into central MS/AL...
A broken line of thunderstorms, perhaps with some marginal wind
damage threat, will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across central MS. The mid-level shortwave trough associated with
this convection will move quickly north and deamplify during the
morning which will likely result in weakening convection by mid-day.
A reservoir of instability will remain across the central Gulf Coast
with perhaps some northward advection into central MS/AL during the
early afternoon as the next mid-level trough approaches the region.
The primary forcing/height falls associated with this trough will
remain mostly north of the warm sector, but a glancing blow could
result in isolated thunderstorms. Lapse rates will remain weak, but
sufficient effective shear (35-40 knots) could result in a few
stronger/more organized storms capable of large hail or some
damaging wind gusts.

Removed the marginal risk across central Louisiana for the threat of
elevated thunderstorms with the northward advancing warm front late
in the period. It appears the primary forcing associated with the
mid-level trough and strengthening low-level jet will be after 12Z
Saturday.

..Bentley.. 12/26/2024

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